The Outlook
November 2005

Welcome  

A Time for Thinking  

As the year comes to a close, and the holiday arrives where we give thanks for all our blessings, we at Dovetail decided to stimulate the brain a little with a couple of challenging pieces that we hope will get you thinking, and perhaps even acting, differently.

Both of these pieces address issues of change - small incremental change over long periods, small changes in large numbers, or large changes in small proportions. These mathematical exercises are not always easily or intuitively understood. A good example is the question: “how many people do you need in a room to have a 50-50 chance of two individuals having the same birthday?” The answer is 25. For most people that doesn't make intuitive sense, but mathematically it is true and in practice it works. Another example is in the discussion of a rate of increase. It is a basic truth that every time you double something, if you cut that rate of increase in half, you will get the same numerical increase over the same succeeding period of time!   Meaning if you have one million people and the rate of increase is 2 percent, you will add one million more people (double) in 35 years. If you cut the rate in half to 1 percent, you will still add another million people in the following 35 years! Again, this is not intuitive, but it is nonetheless real. So the longer we wait on issues of growth, the bigger the impact we have to make, and incremental improvements become almost irrelevant.

The challenge is how to convince the public of the truth and dramatic consequences of issues that just don't make intuitive sense. There is no easy answer to that question, but surely a segment of the answer lies in building trust.  

- Jeff

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I n  T h i s  I s s u e:

Dovetail Commentary: Voluntary Environmental Certification: Is Regulation the Answer?

Dovetail Report: Seeking Sustainability: Critically Important Issues Remain Off the Table

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D o v e t a i l   C o m m e n t a r y

Voluntary Environmental Certification

Is Regulation the Answer?
Dr. Jeff Howe

Recently I spoke at an introductory class in the Bio-based Products Department of the University of Minnesota. As part of my presentation I did a quick survey of the group, with some interesting results. Perhaps the starkest of the responses was to the question, “Should environmental concerns be resolved through the free-market system or should they be addressed through regulations?” All 39 of the students responded that regulation was needed to address environmental issues. I wasn't surprised at the answer, only at the unanimity. But does this response make sense, or are these just foolish, inexperienced college students?  

To read more, click here.

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D o v e t a i l   R e p o r t s

Seeking Sustainability

Critically Important Issues Remain Off the Table
Dr. Jim Bowyer

In view of the high and growing interest in sustainability issues, it is something of a curiosity that people throughout much of the world appear unwilling or unable to address in any substantial way the pressing reality of population growth. What is most interesting about the exclusion of population growth from planning for sustainability is that the sustainability equation becomes extraordinarily challenging when rapidly rising human numbers are treated as a given. As uncomfortable as these discussions may be, it is worthwhile to consider whether it is possible for the population to double, or more, while simultaneously maintaining the world's biodiversity; the world's remaining indigenous cultures, hunting grounds and sacred areas; the world's current expanse of tropical forests.  Maybe.

To read the introduction or download the report, click here.